Friday, September 12, 2014

Ukraine 'ceasefire' a temporary measure:


 The ceasefire agreement in Ukraine signed in Minsk last Friday can only be a temporary measure and by no means a prospect for an end to the conflict in the ruinously divided country.

 Diplomatically, it snookered Washington's attempts to get NATO countries at their Summit in Wales last week to give military support to Kiev Junta puppet "president", Poroshenko who was invited to attend. It also spiked the guns of Rasmussen, retiring General Secretary of NATO, whose blood thirsty rhetoric calling for more sanctions on Russia, more NATO bases in Eastern Europe, more defence spending by EU countries, went down like a lead balloon.

 Poroshenko, who announced to a press conference that five NATO countries had agreed to supply Kiev with military aid was laughed out of town when four of the countries he mentioned denied any such agreements. Only the most corrupt East European régimes supported Washington's line with most of the EU members of NATO employing delaying tactics and diplomatic manoeuvres to avoid any serious commitments to the Kiev Junta.

 Poroshenko had no option but agree to a ceasefire as Junta forces were in retreat from a surge of forward moves by the resistance of what are now described as the Novorussiya Armed Forces, the combined militias of the Lugansk and Donetsk Peoples Republics which declared independence from Kiev in May this year and were subject to vicious and criminal military assaults since by the illegal Junta and its fascist allies, Svoboda and Pravy Sektor with overt collaboration by Washington and the NATO warmongers in defiance of all international law, the Helsinki agreements and the UN Charter.

 The opening of a southern front by NAF forces on the coast road to
Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov, caused panic and disarray in the Junta military and led to the collapse of their assaults on the Eastern oblasts. Nevertheless, the situation for NAF forces is not sufficiently consolidated for further advances to be made yet as the Junta is still holding Donetsk Airport and has a large force close to Lugansk. In Mariupol, Junta forces have been reinforced and a similar sized force is camped outside the city.

 The military situation has more advantage for the NAF than for the Junta; while both sides can reinforce numbers, Kiev can do nothing to reinforce morale which is at rock bottom. The constant Junta propaganda of daily Russian "invasions" was counterproductive in that its own forces feared meeting regular Russian troops in the field and thus were wary of any direct confrontation with the opposition and chose instead to encamp in large groups and shell Donbass towns and cities causing massive civilian casualties and property destruction. The tactic allowed smaller NAF forces to surround these groups, cut off their supply lines and force them to surrender along with their equipment.

 Undoubtedly, there will be provocations in several areas where static elements of Junta forces are located. Poroshenko recently visited Mariupol threatening to reverse NAF occupation of the coast road. This is an empty boast; while the Junta is occupying the city, half the population is anti- Kiev and any excursion along the coast would be likely subject to large-scale rear guard sabotage by hostile civilians.

The political situation is that the 1990 Ukrainian state which emerged from the former USSR is now a defunct entity brought to ruin and civil war, bankruptcy and criminality by the corrupt gang of Oligarchs who have been running it since then. There is now no possibility that this failed state can be restored to any kind of stable democracy. The Eastern Oblasts will never again accept rule from Kiev. There is no legal government or central authority anymore. Poroshenko has no more authority than a used postage stamp. His rule extends from his office desk to the door and no further. He may issue all the orders he wants but no one is listening. The Junta political factions are squabbling among themselves as usual and bedamned to the rights of the Ukrainian people to a decent civilised life like most of Europe.

 Only when the Ukrainian people organise themselves to rid their country of the Oligarchs, Nazis and political gangsters will they get functioning democracy, constitutional rights and a prosperous economy again. They will never get this from Brussels bureaucrats or NATO's warmongers.

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